| On the above graph
the green line represents our target reservoir elevation
throughout the year. We call it the “rule curve”. It is
good for the actual water level to be above the rule curve,
because that means we have more water in storage than we
expected. If the actual water level falls below the rule
curve we are in dangerous territory and at a risk for
running out of water in the reservoirs, thus needing to
supplement our hydro with diesel generation. Water year 2006
(black line) was a good
one. We were way above the rule curve all year long. With
the warm, wet weather of December 2005 and January 2006,
reservoir levels remained very high. Even the minimum
elevation in May 2006 was much higher than the rule curve.
The reservoir filled completely, and even overflowed in
September and October 2006.
At the beginning of water
year 2007 (October 2006 -- the blue line) the reservoir was still full, but
as it got cold in November the reservoir level began to
fall. Winter 06-07 was colder than normal. That cold
weather resulted in a record breaking snowfall, but it also
resulted in higher electric loads for heating homes and
businesses. With so much water being taken out of the
reservoir to meet power demands, and so little flowing in
due to low inflow, the reservoir level was actually below
the rule curve by May 2007.
As the record snowpack
melted the reservoir filled rapidly in June and July 2007.
August 2007 was quite dry, and the reservoir didn’t fill as
rapidly, actually falling below the rule curve in August and
staying below through September 2007.
We started water year 2008
(October 2007) below the rule curve, and the reservoir never
filled that fall. With water levels so low, it was clear
that we would need to supplement our hydro generation with
some diesel generation this winter.
And then, of course, there was the avalanche
that occurred on April 16, which kept Juneau on
continuous diesel generation until the Snettisham line was
restored on June 1. |